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Neural Foundry's avatar

Outstanding breakdown of Life360's unit economics and valuation metrics. Your comparison of the $2,400 per subscriber valuation to Netflix ($1,600) and Spotify ($470) is particularly illuminating - it really crystallizes how much growth expectation is baked into the current price. The key insight here is that investors are betting Life360 can sustain 30-40% revenue growth while expanding margins, versus the mature ~10% growth of Netflix/Spotify. The ARPU journey from $59 in 2018 to $152 in 2024 is impressive - nearly 3x in six years. But I wonder about the sustainability of that ARPU growth trajectory. Most of the recent gains came from major price hikes (the 24% YoY jump in Q4 2023 you mentioned) and tier migrations. How much pricing power remains before hitting churn thresholds? Your point about 85% gross margins on subscriptions is critical - that's stellar unit economics if they can scale. The 2024 achievement of first full-year positive EBITDA ($45.5M) validates the business model. However, the path to management's ambitious $1B revenue target (from $371M currently) requires sustaining the ~25% subscriber growth plus continued ARPU expansion. The comparison to the $70 per MAU when including all 80M+ users is intersting - it highlights the monetization opportunity if they can convert more free users or generate meaningful ad revenue (their >$1 per MAU ad target). The advertising avenue could be transformative, but also risks alienating users if done poorly. Overall, the valuation seems to assume near-perfect execution on all fronts: subscriber growth, ARPU, ad monetization, and margin expansion. Any hiccup in these growth drivers would likely lead to significant multiple compression. Great analysis though!

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